I heard a sing In the dark of December
“I heard a bird sing
In the dark of December
A magical thing
And sweet to remember.
‘We are nearer to Spring
Than we were in September,’
I heard a bird sing
In the dark of December.”
– Oliver Herford
The base rate neglect fallacy is particularly tenacious. The untrained mind takes the short trip from the specific to the general. Go convince the dude!
On a whim, Mr. Dyneout and the missus show up at their favorite restaurant without having reserved a table. The maitre d’ courteously shows them to a table. Once seated, Mr. Dyneout opines about the state of the restaurant business in town: ”Bad times, eh! Just a week ago you couldn’t get a table in this joint without a reservation.”
The missus acquiesced.. But not the neighbor, to whom Mr. Dyneout later relayed the episode. “We had to tour Beirut to find a table at a restaurant. All were full. Some had even invaded the sidewalks with hastily hired tables. Talk of bad times! Heh!”, said the neighbor.
