Covers 84 months till December 2019 – Published on February 20, 2019 – In 120 pages

Summary of results analyzed in the tenth edition

The overall indicator

In the second half of 2019, the overall retail sales performance indicator for the nine categories of goods and services covered by the report posted a record decline of 10.87 percent from its level in the same period of 2018.

That indicator was down 8.47 percent from its level in the first half of 2019, the first decline on record in the comparison of a second half-year indicator with that of the first half of the same year.

For the year as a whole, the retail sales indicator for all nine categories of goods and services was down 3.01 percent from its 2018 level.

 The 2019 retail sales indicator was 12.24 percent below its 2012 base year level.

Advancing indicators in 2019

Of the nine categories of consumer goods and services analyzed in the report, the retail sales performance indicators of two categories were up in 2019.

The sales indicator for hospitality services was up 34.24 percent from its 2018 level, and the indicator for food and beverages was up 24.38 percent from its 2018 level.

By the half-year to half-year comparison, the same two categories of retail recorded positive moves.

The sales performance indicator for hospitality services was up 24.37 percent in the second half of 2019 from its level in the same period of the preceding year, and the indicator for food and beverages was up 11.15 percent by the same comparison.

Declining indicators in 2019

By order of the decline’s magnitude, retail categories that registered falls in their sales performance indicators in 2019 are: cosmetics; sports and hobbies goods; clothing and fashion; medical services; tourism services; household goods; and luxury goods.

• In 2019, the retail sales indicator for cosmetics was down 35.41 percent from its 2018 level. That indicator was 64 percent below its base year level.
• The sports and hobbies goods sales indicator fell 88 percent below its 2018 level and was 54.33 percent lower than its 2012 base level.
• The sales indicator for the clothing and fashion retail category was down 18.89 percent from its 2018 and dipped to 56.34 percent below its 2012 base year level, the broadest negative gap from base level among the report’s nine retail categories.
• The retail sales indicator for medical services decreased by 11.3 percent in 2019 from its 2018 level. That indicator, however, remained 33.27 percent above its base level.
• The retail sales indicator for tourism services was down 7.77 percent in 2019 from its preceding year’s level and stood at 12.06 percent below its base year level.
• The retail sales indicator for household goods diminished by 5.76 percent in 2019 compared with its 2018 level. That indicator was 33.17 percent lower than its base level.
• The retail sales of luxury goods saw their indicator decline by a moderate 3.52 percent. That indicator fell to 55.18 percent below its base, the second broadest negative gap from the 2012 level among the nine retail categories.

Covers 78 months till June 2019 – Published on August 26, 2019 – In 96 pages

Summary of results analyzed in the ninth edition

The overall indicator

In the first half of 2019, the overall retail sales performance indicator for the nine categories of goods and services covered by the report was 5.51 percent higher than its level in the first half of 2018.

That indicator was down 2.62 percent from its level in the second half of 2018.

The sales indicator for all nine categories of goods and services remained 8.36 percent below its 2012 base year level.

The sales performance indicators by category

Of the nine categories of consumer goods and services included in the report, the sales performance indicators of four categories declined in the first half of 2019 as compared with their levels in the same period of the preceding year.

Declining indicators in the first half of 2019

By order of the magnitude of the decline, retail categories that saw their sales performance indicators decline are: cosmetics, clothing and fashion, sports and hobbies goods, and medical services.

• The retail sales indicator for cosmetics was down 35.68 percent from its level in the first half of 2018. That indicator was 58 percent below its base year level.
• The sales indicator for the clothing and fashion retail category was down 13.22 percent from its level in the same period of the previous year and stood at 51.69 percent below its 2012 base year level.
• The sports and hobbies goods sales indicator was 93 percent below its level in the first half of 2018. That indicator was 51.49 percent lower than its 2012 base level.
• The retail sales indicators for medical services decreased by 2.39 percent in the first half of 2019 from its level in the corresponding period of the previous year. That indicator, however, was 40.39 percent above its base level.

Advancing indicators in the first half of 2019

Five retail sales indicators staged advances in the first half of 2019. By order of magnitude of the advance, these indicators are those of hospitality services, food and beverages, the household goods, luxury goods, and tourism services.

• The retail sales indicator for hospitality services rose by 45.4 percent in the first half of 2019 as compared with its level in the same period of 2018. That indicator stood at a level 27.99 percent above the 2012 base year level.
• The food and beverages sales indicator was up 41.19 percent form its level in the first half of 2018. That indicator was above its 2012 base year level by the broadest margin of 71.34 percent.
• The household goods retail sales indicator moved up by a moderate 4.76 percent in the first half of 2019 and remained 32.62 percent below its base year level.
• The retail sales indicator for luxury goods was 2.92 percent higher than its level in the first half of 2018. That indicator recorded the broadest fall from its base year at it stood at 55.6 percent below the 2012 level.
• The retail sales indicator for tourism services advanced by a minimal 2.88 percent, and was a minimal 2.04 percent above its base level.

Covers 72 months till December 2018 – Published on February 4, 2019 – In 112 pages

Summary of results analyzed in the eighth edition

The overall indicator

• In 2018, the overall retail sales performance indicator for the nine categories of goods and services covered by the report edged 0.57 percent lower than its 2017 level.
• That indicator remained 9.52 percent below its 2012 base year level

The sales performance indicators by category

• Of the nine categories of consumer goods and services included in the report, the sales performance indicators of five categories declined in 2018 as compared with their levels in 2017.

Declining indicators in 2018:

By order of the magnitude of the indicator decline, these categories are: clothing and fashion, cosmetics, sports and hobbies goods, hospitality services, and luxury goods. 

• The sales indicator for the clothing and fashion retail category declined by 17.65 percent and fell to 46.17 percent below the 2012 base year level.
• The retail sales indicator for cosmetics was down 16.27 percent. That indicator was 8.94 percent above its base year level.
• The sports and hobbies goods sales indicator moved down 10.36 percent and that indicator was 43 percent lower than the 2012 base level.
• The retail sales indicators for hospitality services decreased by 9.78 percent and that indicator was 6.21 percent below its base level.
• The sales indicator for luxury goods was 7.84 percent lower than its 2017 level and hit a low of 53.55 percent below the base level, the broadest negative distance from base compared with retail categories examined in the report.

Advancing indicators in 2018:

Four retail sales indicators staged advances. By order of magnitude, advancing indicators are those of the food and beverages category, the household goods category, the medical services category, and the tourism services category.

• The retail sales indicator for food and beverages was up 33.89 percent and was 37.81 percent above the 2012 base year level.
• The household goods sales indicators rose by 5.37 percent, but that indicator remained 29.09 percent below its base year level.
• The medical services retail sales indicator moved up by a moderate 4.5 percent and reached a high of 50.26 percent above base level.
• The retail sales indicator for tourism services advanced 4.14 percent, but remained 4.66 percent below base level.

Covers 66 months till June 2018 – Published on August 3, 2018 – In 155 pages

Summary of results analyzed in the seventh edition

The overall indicator

• In the first half of 2018, the overall retail sales performance indicator for the nine categories of goods and services covered by the report was 9.46 percent lower than its level in the preceding half year and 0.92 percent higher than its level in the first half year of 2017.

• That indicator remained 13.14 percent below its 2012 base year level. 

The sales performance indicators by category

4. The sales performance indicators by category

• Of the nine categories of consumer goods and services included in the report, the sales performance indicators of six categories declined in the first half of 2018 as compared with their levels in the same period of 2017.
• By order of the magnitude of the indicator decline, these categories are: the sports and hobbies goods, the clothing and fashion, the luxury goods, the hospitality services, cosmetics, and the tourism services.
• The sales indicator for the sports and hobbies goods category fell by 11.66 percent in the first half of 2018 from its level in the same period of the preceding year; the clothing and fashion sales performance indicator was down 10.67 percent by that comparison; the sales performance indicator for the luxury goods category declined by 9.85 percent; the sales indicator for hospitality services was 5.22 percent lower; the sales indicator for cosmetics declined by 4.56 percent; and the sales indicator for tourism services edged down 0.83 percent.
• The sales indicators for three categories of retail goods and services increased in the first half of 2018 as compared with same period of 2017.

These categories are:

• food and beverages (+27.77 percent);
• medical services (+6.1 percent).
• household goods (+2.73 percent);

Sales performance indicators in relation to base year level

In the first half of 2018, the sales performance indicators for six categories of retail remained below their 2012 base year level. These are the indicators for:

• the luxury goods indicator: 56.86 percent below base year level;
• the sports and hobbies goods indicator: 49.51 percent below base year level;
• the clothing and fashion indicator: 44.33 percent below base year level;
• the household goods indicator: 35.68 percent below base year level;
• the hospitality services indicator: 11.97 percent below base year level.
• tourism services indicator: 0.82 percent below base year level.

The sales indicators for three categories of retail exceeded their 2012 base year level. The are the indicator for:

• medical services: 43.82 percent above base year level;
• food and beverages: 21.35 percent above base year level;
• cosmetics: 15.7 percent above base year level.

Sales performance indicators that hit dataset lows

Two categories of retail saw their indicators for the first half of 2018 fall to their lowest level within the dataset of five and a half years. These are the clothing and fashion category and the luxury goods category.

Covers 60 months till December 2017 – Published on February 5, 2018 – In 127 pages

Summary of results analyzed in the sixth edition

The overall indicator

The overall retail sales indicator for the nine categories of goods and services covered by the report was 1.37 percent higher than its level in 2016.

However, that indicator remained nine percent below its 2012 base year level.

 The sales performance indicators by category

Of the nine categories of consumer goods and services included in the report, four saw their sales indicators decline in 2017 compared to their levels in 2016. By order of magnitude of the indicator decline, these categories are: the luxury goods, the tourism services, the clothing and fashion, the sports and hobbies goods.

The sales indicator for the luxury goods declined by 15.88 percent in 2017 from its 2016 level; the sales indicator for tourism services was down 14.44 percent in 2017; the clothing and fashion sales indicator retreated by 3.13 percent in the same period, and the indicator for sports and hobbies goods edged down 0.47 percent.

The sales indicators for five categories of retail goods and services increased in 2017 as compared with their previous year’s levels.

These categories are:

• cosmetics (+17.94 percent)
• food and beverages (+8.67 percent);
• hospitality services (+4.47 percent);
• household goods (+3.5 percent);
• medical services (+2.68 percent).

Sales performance indicators in relation to base year level

In 2017, the sales performance indicators for five major categories of retail remained below their 2012 base year level. These are the indicators for:

• luxury goods: 49.6 percent below base level;
• sports and hobbies goods: 36.41 percent below base level;
• clothing and fashion: 34.63 percent below base level;
• household goods: 32.7 percent below base level;
• tourism services: 8.45 percent below base level.

The sales indicators for four categories of retail exceeded their 2012 base year level. These are the indicator for:

• medical services: 43.79 percent above base year level;
• cosmetics: 30.1 percent above base year level;
• hospitality services: 3.96 percent above base year level;
• food and beverages: 2.93 percent above base year level.

A dismal December sales performance

For four categories of retail, December 2017 recorded the worst sales performance compared with the past four Decembers of the report’s data set. These categories are: clothing and fashion, household goods, luxury goods and tourism services.

In December 2017, the overall sales performance indicator stood at its lowest level in comparison with its levels in the previous three Decembers of the data set.

Covers 54 months till June 2017 – Published on August 10, 2017 – In 123 pages

Summary of results analyzed in the fifth edition

In the first half of 2017, the overall retail sales indicator for the nine categories of goods and services covered by the report was 3.08 percent higher than its level in the same period of 2016.

 However, that indicator remained 13.93 percent below its 2012 base year level.

 Of the nine categories of consumer goods and services included in the report, three saw their sales indicators decline in the first half of 2017 compared to their levels in the same period of the previous year. These are the indicators for clothing and fashion, luxury goods, and tourism services.

The sales indicator for the clothing and fashion category of retail was down 1.12 percent in the first half of 2017 compared with its level in the same period of the previous year. That indicator stood at a low of 37.68 percent below its base year level.

In the period under review, the retail sales indicator for luxury goods was 10.08 percent lower than the level it had reached in the first half of 2016. That indicator dipped to 52.15 percent below base year level, thus recording the lowest value from base.

The sales indicator for tourism services posted the period’s broadest fall as it was down 11.7 percent from its level in the first half of 2016. However, that indicator stood at par with its base level.

The sales indicators for five categories of retail goods and services increased marginally in the first half of 2017 as compared with their levels in the same period of the previous year.

These categories are:

• food and beverages (+8.47 percent);
• household goods (+6.63 percent);
• hospitality services (+5.7 percent);
• sports and hobbies goods (+3.5 percent); and
• medical services (+1.66 percent)

Only the retail sales indicator for cosmetics registered a significant advance from its level in the first half of 2016 as it rose by 22.13 percent. That category of retail, however, accounts for the lowest weight in terms of the comparative volume of sales.

Covers 48 months till December 2016 – Published on February 7, 2017 – In 115 pages

Summary of results analyzed in the fourth edition

The overall retail sales indicator for the nine categories of goods and services was down 0.75 percent in 2016. This confirms the fact that the retail activity’s minimal rates of improvement witnessed in 2015 have failed to create recovery momentum in 2016.

 The overall retail sales indicator for 2016 remained 10.23 percent below its base year level.

Of the nine categories of consumer goods and services included in the report, six saw their sales indicators decline in 2016.

The sales indicator for the fashion and clothing category of retail declined by 5.62 percent in 2016 and remained 32.52 percent below its 2012 base level.

The sales indicator for cosmetics was down by 1.88 percent in 2016.

The sales indicator for household goods was 1.5 percent lower in 2016. In four consecutive yearly declines, that indicator fell to 34.98 percent below its base year level.

The sales indicator for luxury goods was 6.11 percent lower in 2016 and remained at 40.08 percent below the 2012 base year level, the broadest negative gap from base.

The retail sales indicator for hospitality services retreated by 3.8 percent in 2016 and remained 0.49 percent short of the 2012 base year level.

The retail sales indicator for tourism services fell 8.73 percent in 2016, the broadest decline for the year.

The surge in retail sales in December 2016 was disappointing for five retail sectors. Thus:

• the sales indicator for fashion and clothing was 5.56 percent lower in December 2016 compared to its December 2015 level;
• the December 2016 sales indicator for cosmetics was down 24.07 percent from its December 2015 level, the broadest December year-to-date decline registered among retail categories examined in the report;
• the December 2016 sales indicator for luxury goods was down 8.2 percent from it level in the corresponding month in 2015;
• in December 2016, the sales indicator for hospitality services fell 8.9 percent short of its December 2015 level;
• in December 2016, the sales indicator for tourism services was 22.19 percent lower that its December 2015 level, the second broadest year-to-date decline among retail categories covered.

Covers 42 months till June 2016 – Published on August 10, 2016 – In 106 pages

Summary of results analyzed in the third edition

In the first half of 2016, the sales performance indicators for four major categories of consumer goods and services, which account for some 58 percent of total retail sales, fell broadly below the level they had reached in the corresponding period of 2015.

In the first half of 2016, the sales indicator for the clothing category was 7.51 percent lower than its level in the first half of 2015. Within the report’s data sets, this category accounts for about 22 percent of retail sales.

The sales indicator for hospitality services, a category that accounts for about 19 percent of retail sales, was down 8.01 percent in the first half of 2016 compared with the same period of 2015.

The sales indicator for tourism services, a category that constitutes about nine percent of retail sales, retreated by 6.62 percent in the first six months of 2016 from its level in the corresponding period of the preceding year.

In the first half-year of 2016, the sales indicator for luxury items fell by 9.28 percent compared with its level in the corresponding half-year of 2015. Within the report’s data sets, sales of luxury items represent about eight percent of total retail sales.

By the end of the first half of 2016, the sales indicators for three of the four major remained by a wide margin below their base year levels.

In the first half of 2016, the sales indicator for the clothing category remained 36.97 percent below its 2012 base year level, that of hospitality services was 12.13 percent below the base level, and that of luxury items was at a broad 46.79 percent lower than the base level.

Other sales indicators that remained noticeably below the base year level are: the indicator for sports and hobbies goods, which remained 44.78 percent below the base level; the indicator for household goods remained 41.28 percent lower than the base level; and the indicator for food and beverages remained 12.44 percent below base level.

The retail sales indicator for the nine categories of consumer goods and services remained 16.5 percent below the base year level, thus confirming the fact that the retail activity’s minimal rates of improvement witnessed in 2015 have failed to gather recovery momentum and have actually been reversed in the first half of 2016.

In the first half of 2016, retail sales indicators for most categories of goods and services covered by the report’s data sets traced the typical pattern of a broad fall in January compared to the previous month’s surge. Confirming the persistent weakness in demand, the January 2016 retail sales indicators fell markedly more than the fall registered in January 2015.

Covers 36 months till December 2015 – Published on February 15, 2016 – In 109 pages

Summary of results analyzed in the second edition

In 2015, the retail sales indicator for all nine categories of consumer goods and services covered by the second edition of the LFA-CCIABML Retail Activity Indicators report moved up by 6.09 percent. That indicator, however, remained 9.55 percent below its 2012 base year level.

The trend for the overall indicator of goods and services remained weak and wholly below the base year level all through the three-year period. This is an eloquent expression of the retail industry’s dismal sales performance over the report’s time frame.

The sales indicator for the six categories of consumer goods rose by 5.67 percent in 2015, but stood at a level that stayed 23.63 percent lower than that of its base year.

The indicator for the six categories of consumer goods traced a near-flat trend over the 36-month period.

In the consumer goods sectors:

• The retail sales indicator for the clothing category recorded a decline of 5.97 percent. That indicator exhibited a strong negative trend within the time series under review.
• The sales indicator for household goods fell by 5.94 percent in 2015, and the trend for that indicator was markedly negative in the period covered by the report.
• The sales indicator for the food and beverages category (which includes supermarkets; confectionery; bakeries; various food stores; and alcoholic beverages) increased by 16.65 percent. The trend traced by that indicator started from a low of more than 33 percent below the base year level and remained below that level throughout the 36-month period.
• The sales indicator for cosmetics and for sports and hobbies items registered upward moves of 12.63 percent and 12.11 percent respectively. The luxury items category of retail saw its sales indicator rise by 3.62 percent.
• The sales indicators for the sports and hobbies goods and for the luxury items categories of retail traced a near-flat trend all along the 36-month time series.

In the consumer services sectors:

• The sales indicator for hospitality services recorded the broadest increase as it moved up by 15.31 percent.
• The sales indicator for medical services rose by 5.91 percent.
• The sales indicator for tourism services increased by a minimal 0.76 percent.

The sales indicator for the three categories of consumer services increased by 6.64 percent in 2015. That metric reached 18.6 percent above the base year level.

In 2015, the retail sales indicators for five out of six categories of consumer goods remained below their base year level.

• The broadest negative gaps between the 2015 sales indicator levels and the base year level were those registered by the indicator for sports and hobbies, which remained 38.64 percent lower than the base year level; the indicator for luxury items remained 36.18 percent below the base year level; the indicator for household goods, stood at 33.99 percent lower than the base year level; and the sales indicator for clothing stayed 28.5 percent below base level.
• The sales indicator for food and beverages remained a significant 16.91 percent below its base level.

The retail sales indicators of all three categories of consumer services examined in the report, in addition to the cosmetics sales indicator, attained a level that surpassed the base year level.

• The broadest positive gap was recorded by the sales indicator for medical services (plus 35.11 percent from base year level), followed by the indicator for tourism services (plus 17.24 percent); the indicator for cosmetics (plus 12.43 percent); and the indicator for hospitality services (plus 3.45 percent).

In the second half of 2015, the month-to-month analysis showed that sales indicators in July extended an uptrend that had started around mid second quarter 2015 then fell sharply in the months of August and September. The month of October witnessed mixed performance, whereas November registered an uptick in sales indicators, prefiguring the start of the year’s seasonal surge. December lived up to retailers’ expectations as the month that invariably saves the year, with sales increasing by a multiple of the average of the year’s remaining eleven months.

On a quarter-to-quarter basis, the overall indicator for retail sales of the nine categories of consumer goods and services included in the report moved down by 3.53 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared with its level in the preceding quarter, but was up by 1.74 percent compared with the same period of the previous year. In Q3-2015, the overall sales performance indicator was up 14.62 percent from the preceding quarter’s level and 8.59 percent higher than its level in the same period of the previous year.

On a half-year-to-half-year basis, the analysis showed that over the three-year period under review, the half-year indicator has not ratcheted up, despite the illusory appearance that it has. The fact that the H2-2015 indicator fell 2.2 percent short of the level it had reached in H2-2014, in addition to the overall pattern of half-yearly change, imply that activity in the retail industry has not yet traced a recovery path.

Covers 30 months till June 2015 – Published on August 10, 2015 – In 90 pages

Summary of results analyzed in the first edition

The retail sales of the six categories of consumer goods for which indicators were computed increased by 2.2 percent in the first half of 2015 compared with the same period of 2014. However, over the 30-month period covered by the report, the sales indicators for consumer goods remained on average 22.6 percent lower than the 2012 base year level.

Household goods and clothing were the two categories of consumer goods that registered a negative change by that comparison, as their sales indicators retreated by 14.6 percent and 8.7 percent respectively.

The sales indicators for the food and beverages category (which includes supermarkets; confectionery; bakeries; various food stores; and alcoholic beverages) increased the most by 18.8 percent, followed by the sales indicators of sports and hobbies items (plus 14.1 percent). The indicators for the value of sales of cosmetics and luxury items were up by nearly five percent and nearly four percent respectively.

The indicator for retail sales of services posted a gain of 11.4 percent in the first half of 2015 compared with its level in the same period of 2014. Two components of that indicator account for the increase; these are: the tourism category of retail, which saw its sales indicator increase by 28.8 percent, and the hospitality services category (which includes catering; hotels; resorts; and restaurants), the sales indicator of which rose by 20 percent. On average, and over the 30-month period under review, the sales indicators for consumer services were 12.3 percent higher than the 2012 base year.

 The retail sales indicators for 2014

The retail sales indicator of the six categories of goods rose by 1.75 percent in 2014 compared with that of 2013.

The retail sales indicators for the clothing and the household goods categories were down 5.82 percent and 2.74 percent respectively. The sales indicator for food and beverages was up 5.78 percent, the indicator for cosmetics was up 4.58 percent, that for luxury items increased by 5.36 percent, and for sports and hobbies items the indicator rose by 5.31 percent.

The indicator for the value of retail sales of services increased by 0.85 percent in 2014.

The indicators for the hospitality services and the educational services categories were down 9.21 percent and 8.35 percent respectively, whereas those for tourism services and medical services were up 13 percent and 7.75 percent respectively.

The main objective of the project is to track, analyze and forecast trends and developments in retail activity in Lebanon.

The indicators apply to:

—Six categories of consumer goods subdivided into 36 sub-categories

—Three categories of consumer services subdivided into 15 sub-categories.

The survey targets retail businesses and is a key component of the project for the building of retail indicators for Lebanon.

The survey focuses on variables reflecting performance and affecting margins.

It is designed to be non-intrusive in the sense that respondents are asked to indicate the evolution of these variables in percentage terms without reference to base numbers.

The RBCI seeks to capture the expectations of investors through an executive opinion survey that yields a set of reasonably reliable inferential indicators.